Monday, 11 March 2013

Why The West Must Be Won



Over the past week Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and their respective parties have toured through the suburbs of Western Sydney on something that looked remarkably like a political campaign.  They have shaken hands, kissed babies, and rubbed shoulders with the everyday, blue collar migrant.  But why the sudden interest in Western Sydney?

For an area that covers less than 0.01% of Australia’s landmass, it has 8% of the federal parliamentary seats. Out of the 12 seats in Western Sydney, Labor holds 8 of them by a 9% margin. According to recent polling, most of these seats – like Werriwa, which has been a Labor seat since 1931 – will be making the transition from Labor to Liberal.  

For Tony Abbott these small margins represented a chance like no other. There is nowhere else in the whole country that he could seize so many Labor seats whilst doing so little footwork. And what’s good for Tony is bad for Julia - she is in Western Sydney in a purely defensive role, fiercely trying to prevent the Coalition from commandeering some very valuable seats.

At first sight, the battle for Western Sydney appears to be one of individual seats. But in a hung parliament – such as the current one where the parties’ margin is only one seat - these electorates have become commodities of monumental value. Both parties will fight tooth and nail to win over any seats they can, as every time one party wins an electorate from the other, their influence in the House of Representatives increases by two seats.

The stakes are higher than they have ever been before.  Will Labor manage the impossible (according to these figures, anyway) and take the trophy for a third time? Or will the pressure of the Liberals snapping at their heels prove too much? As Round One draws to a close, The Labor party limps back to its corner of the ring, still the least favoured party by 9%. For now it seems Julia’s effort to retain the approval of Western Sydney has failed – But we still have six months to go. Let the Battle Royale begin.

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